Still Wide Open For Bucks Co. Commissioners

The following update appears from this link (local PA stuff here)…

By Scott Kraus
From The Morning Call
September 7, 2007

For weeks, Bucks County Democrats have said that despite their Republican opponents' 23,600-vote registration advantage, the race for control of the three-member Board of County Commissioners is a toss-up.

This week they released internal poll numbers they say confirm that.

The late August poll of 400 voters has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, and puts Democrat Diane Marseglia in the lead with the support of 34 percent, followed by Republicans Charley Martin and Jim Cawley with 30 percent and Democrat Steve Santarsiero with 28 percent.

''To me the poll shows a wide-open race,'' said Jef Pollock, president of Global Strategy Group, a New York City firm that has also done work for U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy. ''This is, I think, more example of how the county is very open to change.''

But the numbers also lend support to another theory that has been circulating among some Bucks County political observers: that in a race where the top three out of four candidates are elected, Democrat Diane Marseglia has an inside track to next year's board of commissioners.

Her name appears first on the ballot, she's the only woman in the race and she bested running mate Santarsiero by more than 4,000 votes in the primary election.

The Democrats' poll said 38 percent of voters were familiar with Marseglia, compared to 35 percent who were familiar with Martin, 29 percent with Cawley and 25 percent with Santarsiero.

All four major candidates brushed off suggestions that Marseglia is a shoo-in, or that its a four-way race for the two remaining spots among Cawley, Martin, Santarsiero and Constitution Party candidate Jay Russell.

The Democrats said their poll did not include Russell.

Marseglia said she is too superstitious to even entertain that theory.

''I don't think because you are a woman you get to win, or because you are top ballot position you get to win,'' said Mike Walsh, who is managing the Republican campaign. 'I don't take it as a given.''

But other consultants who are not involved with the race, but are familiar with Bucks County, said Marseglia has a decided advantage.

Harrisburg-based Republican campaign consultant Charlie Gerow, who grew up in Bucks County, said its reasonable to assume Marseglia has the inside track to the board of commissioners, but as the lone Democrat.

There is a clear trend toward voters electing more women to executive and judicial posts, he said, and in low-visibility races like county commissioner, that and name recognition can go a long way.

''There's not people sitting around the corner coffee shop debating the merits of the county commissioner candidates,'' he said.

Philadelphia-based Democratic consultant Larry Ceisler agreed with Gerow on Marseglia's chances, but he said Democrats will have a legitimate chance to win a majority on the commissioners thanks in part to the GOP's problems on national issues.

''I think one can assume she is pretty close to a lock and the only question is whether it will be as a minority or majority commissioner,'' Ceisler said.

Generally, Republicans downplayed the results of the poll, saying it was early in the race and that there is a lot of campaigning left to do.

''There are still 60 days left in the campaign and a lot can happen,'' Martin said.

Absolutely (though I hate to agree with Martin on anything), and for any Bucks Countians (I think that’s correct) out there, let’s do what we can to help Diane and Steve by clicking here.