This story by reporter David Wood in the Baltimore Sun gives us an idea of the scope of the effort required for the withdrawal…
The 20 ground combat brigades deployed (in Iraq) will fill 10,000 flatbed trucks and will take a year to move, logistics experts say. A full withdrawal, shipping home some 200,000 Americans and thousands of tons of equipment, dismantling dozens of American bases and disposing of tons of accumulated toxic waste, will take 20 months or longer, they estimate.Sounds like efforts are already underway; Jack Bell, deputy under secretary of defense for logistics and materiel readiness, told a Senate committee last week that planning has been going on for some time, as Wood notes here.
Yet the administration, long intent on avoiding what it once called a "cut and run" retreat from Iraq, has done little to lay the groundwork for withdrawal, officials here said.
"We don't have the plan in detail yet. We're seriously engaged in trying to figure this out," said Marine Brig. Gen. Gray Payne, director of the U.S. Central Command's logistics operations center.
Even with the benefit of a detailed plan, Payne said, "this is going to be an enormous challenge."Dear God…
Extricating combat forces during an active war is a tricky military maneuver under the best of circumstances, according to interviews with senior military officers and dozens of tactical and strategic military planners and logistics experts in Iraq and at U.S. military facilities across the region.
A hastier departure could find military convoys stalled on roads cratered by roadside bombs, interrupted by blown bridges and clogged with fleeing refugees; heavy cargo planes jammed with troops could labor into skies dark with smoke rising from abandoned American bases.
…
"It's going to be mind-boggling - like picking up the city of Los Angeles and putting all the pieces somewhere else," said an official of the U.S. Army Sustainment Command, which will oversee much of the work.
…
The end of America's last big war, in Vietnam, was planned in detail. Despite the popular image of a helicopter plucking the last Americans from a Saigon rooftop, the withdrawal of 365,000 soldiers took place in increments between 1969 and 1973. The planning took two years.
…
Officially, the military lists 160,000 troops assigned to Iraq. Army officers here say they are also supervising 56,000 contractors and between 30,000 and 50,000 foreign workers, including some Iraqis who are dependent on the U.S. military for jobs and protection.
U.S. Central Command planners are figuring having to move 207,000 troops, said Air Force Col. Dennis J. Nebara deputy director of the Central Command Deployment and Distribution Operations Center.
Most of the Americans, at least, will be flown out of Iraq. "You don't want a lot of people riding around on buses," said Lt. Col. Eric Casler, an Air Force logistician.
But commercial charter aircraft are not allowed to fly into combat zones such as Baghdad or any of the large airfields in Iraq at Balad, Al Asad or Al Taqaddam, Casler said. That means troops will have to be ferried out in C-130 cargo planes so worn out that Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne said last spring he is worried that "their wings are going to fall off."
There’s a lot more to Wood’s article, though I know I’ve presented a big excerpt here. It is obvious, though, that getting us out will be a Herculean labor (the New York Times editorial called “The Road Home” two Sundays ago was also an excellent analysis).
And even if Dubya and his bunch were amenable, I don’t think this administration has the intelligence, operational knowledge or organizational skill to do it.
(And since I only mentioned Dubya once here, Impeach Bush and Impeach Bush – I won’t do this for the music posts, though.)
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