(Well, Guam is technically the next place to vote in the primary - on May 3rd to be accurate.)
I just happened to come across this analysis of the vote last night in the PA primary won by Hillary Clinton, and I have some thoughts (this will end up being a bit repetitive if my comment at the Times blog is approved).
Though the stats cited by Dick Polman of the Inquirer in the Times post are significant, I don’t believe they are that surprising. It was understood that Obama would have had to achieve an astronomical result in Philadelphia to offset Clinton’s wins elsewhere, and of course that didn’t happen. Also, Polman cites that Obama lost among “late-deciding voters,” which again is not surprising given his lack of experience on the national stage versus Hillary Clinton, which I actually think is a plus (though it does concern me – disgusts me, really, to tell you the truth – that 13 percent of the voters in the primary thought race was a deciding issue).
On the whole, I think Obama did well in that he denied Clinton the overwhelming victory she would have needed to alter the delegate and super-delegate math (to say nothing of increasing her campaign contributions). Now, she continues her “must-win” campaign in Indiana (where the numbers here look better for her) and North Carolina (where they don’t…part of me wants to see an endorsement from John Edwards that would help seal it and, in the words on T-shirts circulating throughout Philadelphia yesterday, “End The Drama, (with a) Vote For Obama!”).
Update: If not Edwards himself, then this is the next best thing, I guess.
Also, kos here tells us that Obama made progress in PA relative to the Ohio campaign six weeks ago. When you look at that set of results, you find that Obama actually gained among white voters, voters 68 and older, and those making less than $50K, though he slipped slightly under the “college/no college” voter category and among Catholic voters. And given the firestorm of media nonsense that is not likely to be replicated again (at least, I hope not), I think it’s pretty amazing that Obama was still able to whittle down what was once a 20-point Clinton polling lead to single digits when all was said and done (and this was instructive also).
(And by the way, I think this was a good catch by DHinMI over at The Daily Kos concerning the "other" PA primary; McCain is the all-but-declared nominee and he only gets 72 percent of the vote? And Dr. Paul gets 16 percent?).