The “Central Front” In His Imagination

Thus sayeth Dubya here (timed for today’s latest war cheerleading by Ambassador Crocker and The Almighty Petraeus)…

"Al Qaeda in Iraq is run by foreign leaders loyal to Osama bin Laden," Bush said. "Like bin Laden, they are cold-blooded killers who murder the innocent to achieve al Qaeda's political objectives.

"Yet, despite all of the evidence, some will tell you that al Qaeda in Iraq is not really al Qaeda and not really a threat to America."

Now, for the reality-based community (here, concerning John W. McBush among others)…

"McCain is certainly lying when he says that Iraq will become an al Qaeda state if the U.S. leaves," said Nir Rosen, a journalist who has spent extensive time in Iraq. Rosen told IPS that insofar as the "global war on terror" has any coherent meaning, it is certainly not taking place in Iraq.

…

With regards to Iraq, University of Michigan professor and blogger Juan Cole said that no U.S. advantage is to be gained through the war in Iraq and that it could serve to bolster the weakened global Jihadi groups.

"The real al Qaeda is using Iraq as a recruiting tool," he said. "[The U.S. is] playing into the hands of bin Laden. To the extent that the U.S. is involved in the military occupation of an Arab-Muslim country, they're playing by bin Laden's script."

Cole sees no connection between foreign al Qaeda fighters and the struggle in Iraq.

"We have 24,000 prisoners in Iraq. Just about 150 of them are foreigners," said Cole. "So what that tells me is that we're fighting Iraqis. If the foreign fighters -- the al Qaeda types -- are a significant group, we should have more of them in prison. What, do they run faster? It's not possible given that statistic that Iraq is the central front in any war on terror."

And this would seem to be borne out by this story in the New York Times today, which tells us…

…as members of (a terrorist cell suspected of sending insurgents to Iraq early in 2005) are awaiting a verdict in their case (in Paris), French and other European intelligence and law enforcement officials are saying (fears of terrorists returning to France from Iraq to carry out attacks) appear to be overblown. The logistical challenges and expense of reaching Iraq has been one deterrent, they said, particularly with Syria’s making episodic efforts to halt the use of its territory as a transit route. Compared with the thousands of European Muslims who joined the fight in Afghanistan in the 1990s through organized networks in Britain, the number of fighters going to Iraq has been extremely small, according to senior French intelligence officials.

Another factor, the officials say, is that Iraqi insurgents currently neither need nor welcome European Muslims who lack military training and good Arabic-language skills — except if they are willing to conduct suicide missions.

The nature of the battle has also changed, making Iraq an alien destination for many would-be insurgents. The fight in Iraq is no longer just a jihad against foreign occupiers, but also a confusing civil war pitting Muslim against Muslim. Many young people have family and ethnic ties to Pakistan or North Africa, making those places more attractive destinations, and further advancing those regions’ potential for recruiting and radicalizing young Muslims.

“At the moment, the major threat to Europe is coming from elsewhere — Pakistan, Afghanistan and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,” a terrorist organization based in North Africa, said Judge (Jean-Louis) Bruguière, (France’s senior counterterrorism magistrate) who now works for the European Union investigating terrorist financing.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled corporate media propaganda.

Update 4/9/08: Kudos to Biden for this (h/t Atrios).